Africa is famously characterised by a high fertility rate and infancy survival is still low. The average African woman today can expect to have 5 children in her child bearing years, compared to just 1.7 in East Asia. According to UN Population Division, the population has grown from 110 million in 1850 to 1 billion today and baring catastrophe, it will reach 2 billion by 2050. To get a sense of this kind of increase, consider that in 1950 there were two Europeans for every African; by 2050, on present trends, there will be two Africans for every European.

Today, Africa is undergoing a “demographic transition”. The people are following a course more similar to that of the rest of the world, one where they are living longer and having fewer children, and in which more of their children are surviving infancy. Cities like Addis Ababa, Accra, and Luanda are restraining population growth just as they have in Asia and Latin America. An emergent African middle-class is taking out mortgages and moving into newly built flats and two children is what they want. African women are now following their sisters in Asia and the rich world by bearing steadily fewer children.

In Latin America and Asia, this transition yielded a huge economic gain, called the “demographic dividend”. As birth rates decline, the proportion of children shrinks and the working-age population increases, as is happening now in Africa. This can stimulate industrialisation as a fast-growing, economically active population acts as a catalyst for industrial production. Even some studies reckon that demography explains as much as a third of Asia’s economic growth. The dividend of a demographic transition is not automatic but has to be gained.

In our discussion, we will be asking if Africa can take advantage of this demographic dividend despite its predicaments. Will the continent be able to follow the path blazed by East Asia and reap the benefits of changing population patterns? What further does Africa stand to gain if it capitalizes on this transition? How should the continent prepare for this opportunity and what challenges does it still face?

Remember you can join our discussion on our Facebook page with your questions and comments.

Discussion coordinator: Leon Ahaoma Ukegbu (Coordinator, Debate & Film Club)